American history is filled with examples of third party candidates who had little or no impact on the election of past presidents. Most were individuals representing a parochial issue of the day. Their candidacy represented a protest vote rather than a serious effort to win the election on a national level. However, in the past century the outcome of three presidential elections were seriously impacted or overturned by third party candidates.
Based on the narcissistic personality of at least one GOP hopeful, the 2016 election could split the conservative vote and allow old, “ What difference does it make?” to become the new White House occupant. Let's review three case histories in the past 100 years before we discuss next year's election:
“Nonsense young man I feel as healthy as a Bull Moose” ergo, T.R. ran as the third party candidate of the Bull Moose Party. This split the GOP traditional vote to the extent that T.R. carried six states including Pennsylvania. Woodrow Wilson, with a far more liberal philosophy, won the 2012 election.
In 1992, Ross Perot unsuccessfully challenged the reelection bid of Bush Sr. in the GOP primary. Perot, with the tenacity of a pit bull and independently wealthy enough to finance his own campaign, wouldn't accept the primary rejection and ran as a third party Reform candidate. This peeled away independent and conservative votes from Bush Sr., allowing William Jefferson Clinton to became the new White House occupant.
Final example is the 2000 extremely close Bush II vs Gore election. This election was so close it hinged on the outcome of Florida. Ralph Nader, running as a Liberal party candidate, gathered 97,000 votes at the expense of Gore. Pat Buchanan, running as a conservative protest vote only peeled off 17,00 votes from Bush. The net difference of 80,000 votes far exceeded the 537 net difference between Bush and Gore. This is proof positive that third party or protest candidates can swing a presidential election.
The upcoming GOP primary election has more candidates than Noah had occupants on his Ark. One candidate, The Donald, is not short suited on independent wealth or chutzpah. Add to this political tonic a giant slug of Narcissistic behavior and we have all the makings of a Molotov Cocktail. Who needs expensive theater tickets when the GOP primary debates are about to hit the stage. Let the show begin.
The temporary success of Trump is more a protest vote against typical professional pols than it is of a candidate held under a microscope. Bad mouthing POW's after being a draft dodger during Vietnam nailed his coffin as a serious contender for the GOP nomination. In WWII the Eighth Air Force alone sustained over 30,000 POW casualties. Add to that all the brave airmen who suffered in prison camps during the Korean War and Vietnam. Me thinks The Donald suffers from a fatal case of Hoof-in-Mouth disease.
Stratton Schaeffer is a retired consulting engineer and farmer who lives on Joe Hill.