Back in 2010, Mike Lee took on incumbent Republican Senator Bob Bennett, a three-term, “establishment” candidate – and he defeated him in the caucus and went on to win a resounding victory in the general election. Mr. Bennett was a conservative Republican, and a reliable one on almost every issue – but he was not an articulate champion of causes but instead a standard politician. Mr. Lee’s unseating of an incumbent was an indication that the voters were prepared to turn away from an “old guard” candidate and move toward a more active, and activist outsider who emphasized core principles over political clout and the powers of the office.
Similarly, last week Democrats in New York State’s 14th Congressional district unseated incumbent Congressman Joe Crowley, giving the nomination to 28-year old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Cong. Crowley was a liberal Democrat, and, a reliable one; He had served since 1999, had risen to be the fourth-ranking Democrat in the US House and was considered a smart money alternative to Nancy Pelosi the next time the party chose its leader. Cong. Crowley was expected to roll to a decisive victory, especially considering that his opponent, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez was a Democratic Socialist. But she also was much younger, more active and energetic, and was an outsider challenging the “Old Guard.” She won.
Those who value serene and staid politicians who “get along” and “compromise” lament the defeats of the establishment candidates, but that is one of the strengths of our system: the voters have the ultimate power, and although they often use it to topple incumbents in “wave” general elections – such as 1932, 1946, 1974, 1994, and 2010 – they are coming to understand that they have the power to do it in primary campaigns as well. Mike Lee won a “safe” Republican seat, that would have stayed in the party’s control even if Sen. Bennett had been renominated; and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez is the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a “safe” Democrat seat – but Cong. Crowley would have been easily re-elected had he been nominated. The voters in those two races were willing to turn out one member of their party for another, but would have been very unlikely to turn him out for someone from the other party. In other words, the most likely way to defeat an “establishment” candidate in a “safe” district is to do it in the primary. We suspect this trend will continue to advance in both parties, as both parties move away from the soft, safe, don’t-make-waves center. The activists are winning. We can’t say it ever was true that “there is not a dime’s worth of difference” between the two parties, but if these trends continue, it certainly won't be true for very long.